WFC July 2008 32.5 Put
Position: WFC July 2008 $32.50 Put
Size: 8 percent*
Opened: 11/23/2007
Closed: 01/22/2008
Profit (Loss): 56%
trade thesis
When I was a broke ass graduate student, I had the pleasure of living in an apartment in Texas with several thousand unclean and unwanted roommates. With the lights on, I might see one or two of my uninvited little guests. When the lights went dark, the rest of them came out to play.
By November of 2007, the meltdown in the housing market was in full swing. While the usual cadre of idiot talking cement-heads was busy calling the bottom on CNBC**, I was trying to guess the first money center bank to blow up. While the train wrecks known as Countrywide (CFC) and Indymac (IMB) were not complete at the time, both had derailed and the end result was easily predictable.
Based on my experience in the Lone Star State, I figured there were several others scurrying around the banking sector. So I decided to short Wells Fargo (WFC) using puts. The key to my decision was WFC’s large book of home loans in California, where declining home prices had given CFC and IMB fits. I was wrong about the bank being the next to blow up, but I still made a profit.
mistakes, flashes of brilliance, and lessons learned
This trade turned out quite well, despite my lack of a brilliant exit strategy. When the trade showed a decent open profit, I bailed.
Luck is important - even though my thesis did not play out, I was able to get out of the trade with a decent profit. Additionally, expiration makes options tricky. There have been several red flags in WFC’s conference calls***, but the share price has not imploded as of this post. Had I held through expiration, the put would have finished in the money and the intrinsic value would have been slightly less than what I paid for it.
notes
* Of total account equity.
** This channel is guaranteed to cause brain rot. Turn it off.
*** E.g. redefining non-performing as 120 days past due instead of the traditional 90.
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